The rapid growth of the catering industry as a whole is an important driving force for China to expand domestic demand. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China in 2019 was 41.2 trillion, of which the total catering industry was 4.67 trillion, accounting for about 11.3% of total social retail sales. Since 2015, the catering industry has continued to increase its proportion of zero.
I. 美食行业在国家经济中的地位和增长 食品饮料行业作为一个整体在中国的快速增长是中国扩大内需的重要驱动力。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中食品饮料行业总额为4.67万亿元，占总社会消费品零售总额的大约11.3%。自2015年以来，食品饮料行业的份额持续增加
就增长势头而言，2019年全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长了8.0%，餐饮业同比增长了9.4%。2019年，消费对GDP增长的贡献率为57.8%，拉动GDP约3.5个百分点，并连续六年成为宏观经济增长的第一引擎。餐饮业占社会零售总额的约11.3%，拉动GDP增长约0.4个百分点
中国餐饮业由中小企业主导，连锁程度和市场集中度较低。根据中国烹饪协会的数据，2018年全国有超过800万家餐饮商户。根据美团研究院2019年第一季度的调查数据，86.5%的餐饮商户为个体店，82.5%的餐饮商户的经营面积不足100平方米，95.9%的餐饮商户员工人数少于10人。由于中小餐馆数量众多，市场集中度不高，行业规模效应不明显。随着行业内竞争加剧，餐饮业中的中小企业将面临诸如单店客户获取能力不足、在线平台利用率低和整体经营资金紧张等问题。
Impact of New Crown Pneumonia on the Catering Industry The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused about 90% of business losses in the catering industry during the Spring Festival holiday and February. We estimate that without the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the catering revenue of the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020 will be about 124 billion yuan, but it may actually decrease by about 90%. The catering revenue in February is also expected to decrease by 90% compared to the same period last year, and it is expected to gradually improve after March. The annual catering revenue is expected to be 3.97 trillion yuan, which is about 15% lower than in 2019.
餐饮公司正面临持续的成本压力。面对疫情，一方面，大多数餐饮业被迫关闭，另一方面，他们仍需支付租金、劳动力成本，并且还面临着固定资产的折旧。根据市场研究数据和上市公司餐饮公司的财务数据，原材料、劳动力和租金这三种成本的总和约占总成本的70%（图5）。其次，疫情防控材料的购买成本显著增加。受疫情影响，餐饮业将购买额外的口罩、消毒水、体温测量设备等，以满足疫情防控的安全要求，这极大地增加了餐饮企业的支出。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
