Le développement rapide de l'industrie des services à emporter est une force motrice importante pour la Chine pour élargir la demande intérieure. Selon les données publiées par le Bureau National des Statistiques, les ventes au détail des biens de consommation sociale en Chine en 2019 étaient de 41,2 billions de yuans, dont 4,67 billions étaient dans le secteur des services à emporter, représentant environ 11,3 % des ventes au détail totales de la société. Depuis 2015, le secteur des services à emporter a continué à augmenter sa part de la part nulle.
I. Statut et croissance de l'industrie des services à la table dans l'économie nationale La croissance rapide de l'industrie des services à la table dans son ensemble est une force motrice importante pour la Chine pour élargir la demande intérieure. Selon les données publiées par le Bureau National des Statistiques, les ventes de biens de consommation sociale dans la Chine en 2019 étaient de 41,2 billions de yuans, dont 4,67 billions de yuans pour l'industrie des services à la table, représentant environ 11,3 % des ventes de biens de consommation sociale totales. Depuis 2015, l'industrie des services à la table a continué à augmenter sa part du marché, atteignant environ 11,3 %.
就增长动力而言，2019年全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长8.0%，餐饮收入同比增长9.4%，2019年消费对GDP增长的贡献率为57.8%，拉动GDP增长约3.5个百分点，成为连续6年成为经济增长的“三驾马车”之首，餐饮业占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%，拉动GDP增长约0.4个百分点。
China's catering industry is dominated by small and medium-sized businesses, with a low degree of chaining and market concentration. According to the China Culinary Association, there were more than 8 million catering merchants across the country in 2018. According to the survey data of the Meituan Research Institute in the first quarter of 2019, 86.5% of the catering merchants were individual stores, 82.5% of the catering merchants had an operating area of less than 100 square meters, and 95.9% of the catering merchants had less than 10 employees. As a result of the large number of small and medium-sized restaurants, the market concentration is not high and the scale effect in the industry is not obvious. With increasing competition in the industry, small and medium-sized enterprises in the catering industry will expose problems such as insufficient customer acquisition capabilities in single stores, low utilization of online platforms, and generally tight operating funds.
L'impact du COVID-19 sur l'industrie de la restauration. L'épidémie de COVID-19 a causé environ 90 % des pertes commerciales dans l'industrie de la restauration pendant les vacances de printemps et février. Nous estimons que sans l'impact de l'épidémie de COVID-19, le revenu de la restauration pendant la période du week-end de printemps de 2020 aurait été d'environ 124 milliards de yuans, mais il pourrait en fait diminuer d'environ 90 %. Le revenu de la restauration en février est également prévu de diminuer de 90 % par rapport à la même période de l'année dernière, et devrait progressivement s'améliorer après mars. Le revenu annuel de la restauration est prévu à 3,97 billions de yuans, ce qui est environ 15 % moins élevé qu'en 2019.
餐饮企业面临持续的成本压力。在疫情面前，一方面大部分餐饮企业被迫停业，另一方面仍需支付房租、人工成本，同时还要面对固定资产折旧的问题。根据市场调研数据和上市餐饮企业的财务数据，原材料、人工、租金三项成本合计约占总成本的70%（图5）。其次，防疫物资采购成本显著增加。受疫情影响，餐饮行业将额外购买口罩、消毒水、测温仪等防疫物资，以满足防疫安全要求，这大大增加了餐饮企业的支出。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
