The rapid growth of the catering industry as a whole is an important driving force for China to expand domestic demand. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China in 2019 was 41.2 trillion, of which the total catering industry was 4.67 trillion, accounting for about 11.3% of total social retail sales. Since 2015, the catering industry has continued to increase its proportion of zero.
I. Der Status und das Wachstum der Gastronomieindustrie in der Volkswirtschaft. Das schnelle Wachstum der Gastronomieindustrie als Ganzes ist eine wichtige Triebkraft für China, um die inländische Nachfrage zu erweitern. Laut Daten des Nationalen Statistikbüros betrug der Gesamteinzelhandelsumsatz für soziale Konsumgüter im Jahr 2019 in China 41,2 Billionen Yuan, darunter lag der Anteil der Gastronomieindustrie mit 4,67 Billionen Yuan, was etwa 11,3% des Gesamt-Einzelhandelsumsatzes der Gesellschaft entspricht. Seit 2015 hat sich der Anteil der Gastronomieindustrie kontinuierlich erhöht.
In Bezug auf das Wachstumsmomentum stieg der Einzelhandel mit Verbrauchsgütern im ganzen Land im Jahr 2019 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 8,0 %, und die Gastronomie stieg um 9,4 %. Im Jahr 2019 trug der Konsum zu den Wirtschaftswachstumseigenschaften des BIP bei 57,8 % bei, wodurch er das BIP etwa 3,5 Prozentpunkte vorantrieb und sechs Jahre lang das Hauptantrieb der makroökonomischen Wachstumspolitik wurde. Die Gastronomie macht etwa 11,3 % der Gesamtumsatz der sozialen Einzelhandelsgeschäfte aus und trägt etwa 0,4 Prozentpunkte zum BIP-Wachstum bei.
China's catering industry is dominated by small and medium-sized businesses, with a low degree of chaining and market concentration. According to the China Culinary Association, there were more than 8 million catering merchants across the country in 2018. According to the survey data of the Meituan Research Institute in the first quarter of 2019, 86.5% of the catering merchants were individual stores, 82.5% of the catering merchants had an operating area of less than 100 square meters, and 95.9% of the catering merchants had less than 10 employees. As a result of the large number of small and medium-sized restaurants, the market concentration is not high and the scale effect in the industry is not obvious. With increasing competition in the industry, small and medium-sized enterprises in the catering industry will expose problems such as insufficient customer acquisition capabilities in single stores, low utilization of online platforms, and generally tight operating funds.
新冠状病毒肺炎对餐饮行业的影响新冠状病毒肺炎疫情导致春节期间及2月份餐饮行业损失约90%,若没有新冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响,2020年春节黄金周餐饮收入约为1240亿元,实际可能下降约90%,2月份餐饮收入也预计同比下降约90%,3月后逐步恢复,全年餐饮收入预计为3.97万亿元,较2019年下降约15%。
Verpflegungsunternehmen stehen vor anhaltenden Kostendrucken. Angesichts der Epidemie haben einerseits die meisten Branchen der Verpflegung gezwungen, geschlossen zu werden, andererseits müssen sie immer noch Miete, Arbeitskosten zahlen und auch die Abschreibung von festen Vermögenswerten bewältigen. Basierend auf Marktforschungsdaten und finanziellen Daten der börsennotierten Verpflegungsunternehmen macht der Gesamtbetrag der drei Kosten Rohstoffe, Arbeitskräfte und Miete etwa 70% des Gesamtkosten aus (Abbildung 5). Zweitens hat sich der Kosten für den Kauf von Materialien zur Prävention und Kontrolle der Epidemie erheblich erhöht. Beeinflusst durch die Epidemie wird die Verpflegungsbranche zusätzliche Masken, Desinfektionswasser, Temperaturschmeidetechnik usw. kaufen, um die Sicherheitsanforderungen der Prävention und Kontrolle der Epidemie zu erfüllen, was die Ausgaben von Verpflegungsinstituten erheblich erhöht hat.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
