餐饮产业整体的快速增长，是推动中国扩大内需的重要动力。据国家统计局发布的数据显示，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮业零售额为4.67万亿元，约占社会消费品零售总额的11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮行业在总零售额中的比重持续上升。
I. Statut et croissance de l'industrie des services à la table dans l'économie nationale La croissance rapide de l'industrie des services à la table dans son ensemble est une force motrice importante pour la Chine pour élargir la demande intérieure. Selon les données publiées par le Bureau National des Statistiques, les ventes de biens de consommation sociale dans la Chine en 2019 étaient de 41,2 billions de yuans, dont 4,67 billions de yuans pour l'industrie des services à la table, représentant environ 11,3 % des ventes de biens de consommation sociales totales. Depuis 2015, l'industrie des services à la table a continué à augmenter sa part du marché, atteignant environ 11,3 %.
En termes de dynamisme de croissance, les ventes de produits de consommation sociale dans tout le pays ont augmenté de 8,0 % en glissement annuel, et le secteur de la restauration a augmenté de 9,4 % en glissement annuel. En 2019, la contribution du consommation au growth du PIB était de 57,8 %, poussant le PIB d'environ 3,5 points de pourcentage, et est devenu l'engine de croissance macroéconomique pendant six années consécutives. Le secteur de la restauration représente environ 11,3 % des ventes de produits de consommation sociales totales, poussant le growth du PIB d'environ 0,4 point de pourcentage.
L'industrie de la restauration en Chine est dominée par de petites et moyennes entreprises, avec un faible degré de chaîne et de concentration du marché. Selon l'Association culinaire de Chine, il y avait plus de 8 millions de commerçants de restauration dans le pays en 2018. Selon les données d'enquête du Institut de recherche de Meituan pour le premier trimestre de 2019, 86,5 % des commerçants de restauration étaient des magasins individuels, 82,5 % avaient une superficie opérationnelle de moins de 100 mètres carrés, et 95,9 % avaient moins de 10 employés. En raison du grand nombre de petits et moyens restaurants, la concentration du marché n'est pas élevée et l'effet de taille dans l'industrie n'est pas évident. Avec l'augmentation de la concurrence dans l'industrie, les petites et moyennes entreprises de la restauration seront confrontées à des problèmes tels que des capacités insuffisantes pour gagner des clients en solo, une faible utilisation des plateformes en ligne, et généralement des fonds opérationnels tendus.
新发地疫情对餐饮行业的影响新发地疫情导致春节期间及2月份餐饮企业损失约90%,如果没有新发地疫情影响,2020年春节黄金周餐饮收入约为1240亿元,实际可能下降约90%,2月份餐饮收入也预计同比下降90%,3月份后逐步恢复,全年餐饮收入预计为3.97万亿元,较2019年下降约15%。
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
