整个餐饮行业的快速增长，是推动中国扩大内需的重要动力。据国家统计局发布的数据显示，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮产业为4.67万亿元，约占社会消费品零售总额的11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮行业在总消费中的比重一直在增加。
I. Situación y crecimiento de la industria de la restauración en la economía nacional El rápido crecimiento de la industria de la restauración en su conjunto es una importante fuerza impulsora para que China expanda la demanda interna. Según los datos publicados por el Bureau Nacional de Estadísticas, las ventas al público social totales en China en 2019 fueron de 41.2 billones, de los cuales el sector de la restauración representó 4.67 billones, lo que representa aproximadamente el 11.3% del total de ventas al público social. Desde 2015, la industria de la restauración ha continuado aumentando su participación en el cero
In terms of growth momentum, the retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide in 2019 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the catering industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year. In 2019, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 57.8%, driving GDP by about 3.5 percentage points, and becoming the first engine of macroeconomic growth for six consecutive years. The catering industry accounts for about 11.3% of total social retail sales, driving GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points
La industria de la restauración en China está dominada por pequeñas y medianas empresas, con un bajo grado de cadena y concentración de mercado. Según la Asociación de la Gastronomía China, en 2018 había más de 8 millones de comerciantes de restauración en todo el país. Según los datos de la encuesta del Instituto de Investigación de Meituan en el primer trimestre de 2019, el 86.5% de los comerciantes de restauración eran tiendas individuales, el 82.5% tenían una superficie de operación de menos de 100 metros cuadrados, y el 95.9% tenían menos de 10 empleados. Debido al gran número de restaurantes pequeños y medianos, la concentración de mercado no es alta y el efecto de escala en la industria no es evidente. Con la creciente competencia en la industria, las pequeñas y medianas empresas en la industria de la restauración enfrentarán problemas como la insuficiencia de capacidades de adquisición de clientes en tiendas individuales, la baja utilización de plataformas en línea y, en general, fondos operativos ajustados.
El impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la industria de la restauración El brote de COVID-19 causó pérdidas comerciales de aproximadamente el 90% en la industria de la restauración durante las vacaciones de Año Nuevo chino y febrero. Estimamos que si no hubiera habido impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19, el ingreso al consumo de la restauración durante la semana dorada del Año Nuevo de 2020 sería de aproximadamente 124 mil millones de yuanes, pero podría haber disminuido en aproximadamente el 90%. El ingreso al consumo de la restauración en febrero también se espera que disminuya en un 90% en comparación con el mismo período del año pasado y se espera que mejore gradualmente después de marzo. El ingreso anual al consumo de la restauración se espera que sea de 3.97 billones de yuanes, lo que es aproximadamente un 15% menos que en 2019.
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
