Le développement rapide de l'industrie de la restauration en général est une force motrice importante pour la Chine pour élargir la demande intérieure. Selon les données publiées par le Bureau National des Statistiques, les ventes de biens de consommation sociale dans toute la Chine étaient de 41,2 billions de yuans en 2019, dont 4,67 billions de yuans pour l'industrie de la restauration, représentant environ 11,3 % des ventes de biens de consommation sociales totales. Depuis 2015, l'industrie de la restauration a continué à augmenter sa part de la part nulle.
I. Statut et croissance de l'industrie des services à la table dans l'économie nationale La croissance rapide de l'industrie des services à la table dans son ensemble est une force motrice importante pour la Chine pour élargir la demande intérieure. Selon les données publiées par le Bureau National des Statistiques, les ventes de biens de consommation sociale dans la Chine en 2019 étaient de 41,2 billions de yuans, dont 4,67 billions de yuans pour l'industrie des services à la table, représentant environ 11,3 % des ventes de biens de consommation sociales totales. Depuis 2015, l'industrie des services à la table a continué à augmenter sa part dans le total.
In terms of growth momentum, the retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide in 2019 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the catering industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year. In 2019, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 57.8%, driving GDP by about 3.5 percentage points, and becoming the first engine of macroeconomic growth for six consecutive years. The catering industry accounts for about 11.3% of total social retail sales, driving GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points
中国餐饮行业以中小型企业为主，连锁化程度低，市场集中度不高。据中国烹饪协会统计，2018年全国有800多万餐饮商户。根据美团研究院2019年第一季度的调查数据，86.5%的餐饮商户为个体户，82.5%的餐饮商户经营面积小于100平方米，95.9%的餐饮商户员工人数少于10人。由于中小型餐馆数量众多，市场集中度不高，行业内规模效应不明显。随着餐饮行业竞争加剧，中小型餐饮企业将暴露出单店客户获取能力不足、线上平台利用率低、运营资金紧张等问题。
Impact of New Crown Pneumonia on the Catering Industry The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused about 90% of business losses in the catering industry during the Spring Festival holiday and February. We estimate that without the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the catering revenue of the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020 will be about 124 billion yuan, but it may actually decrease by about 90%. The catering revenue in February is also expected to decrease by 90% compared to the same period last year, and it is expected to gradually improve after March. The annual catering revenue is expected to be 3.97 trillion yuan, which is about 15% lower than in 2019.
Les entreprises de restauration sont confrontées à des pressions coûteuses continues. Face à l'épidémie, d'une part, la plupart de l'industrie de la restauration a été forcée de fermer, et d'autre part, elle doit toujours payer les loyers, les coûts de main-d'œuvre, et fait également face à la dépreciation des actifs fixes. Sur la base de données de recherche du marché et de données financières des entreprises de restauration cotées en bourse, la somme des trois coûts de matières premières, de main-d'œuvre et de loyers représente environ 70 % du coût total (Figure 5). Deuxièmement, le coût d'achat de matériaux pour la prévention et le contrôle de l'épidémie a considérablement augmenté. Affaiblie par l'épidémie, l'industrie de la restauration achètera des masques supplémentaires, de l'eau de désinfection, des équipements de mesure de température, etc., pour répondre aux exigences de sécurité de la prévention et du contrôle de l'épidémie, ce qui a considérablement augmenté les dépenses des entreprises de restauration.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
