整个餐饮行业的快速增长，是拉动中国扩大内需的重要力量。据国家统计局发布的数据显示，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮业零售额为4.67万亿元，占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮业占比持续增加。
I. Situación y crecimiento de la industria de la restauración en la economía nacional El rápido crecimiento de la industria de la restauración en su conjunto es una importante fuerza impulsora para que China expanda la demanda interna. Según los datos publicados por el Bureau Nacional de Estadísticas, las ventas al público social totales en China en 2019 fueron de 41.2 billones de yuanes, de los cuales el sector de la restauración total fue de 4.67 billones de yuanes, representando aproximadamente el 11.3% del total de ventas al público social. Desde 2015, la industria de la restauración ha continuado aumentando su participación en el cero
En términos de impulso de crecimiento, las ventas minoristas de bienes de consumo social en todo el país aumentaron un 8.0% interanual en 2019, y la industria de la restauración aumentó un 9.4% interanual. En 2019, la contribución del consumo al crecimiento del PIB fue del 57.8%, impulsando el PIB en aproximadamente 3.5 puntos porcentuales, y se convirtió en el primer motor del crecimiento macroeconómico durante seis años consecutivos. La industria de la restauración representa aproximadamente el 11.3% del total de ventas minoristas sociales, impulsando el crecimiento del PIB en aproximadamente 0.4 puntos porcentuales.
中国餐饮行业以中小型企业为主，连锁化程度低，市场集中度不高。据中国烹饪协会统计，2018年全国有800多万家餐饮商户。根据美团研究院2019年第一季度的调研数据，86.5%的餐饮商户为个体户，82.5%的餐饮商户经营面积小于100平方米，95.9%的餐饮商户员工人数少于10人。由于中小型餐馆数量众多，市场集中度不高，行业内规模效应不明显。随着餐饮行业竞争加剧，中小型餐饮企业将暴露出单店客户获取能力不足、线上平台利用率低、运营资金紧张等问题。
El impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la industria de la restauración El brote de COVID-19 causó aproximadamente el 90% de las pérdidas comerciales en la industria de la restauración durante las vacaciones de Año Nuevo chino y febrero. Estimamos que si no hubiera habido impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19, el ingreso de la restauración durante la semana dorada del Año Nuevo de 2020 sería de aproximadamente 124 mil millones de yuanes, pero podría haber disminuido en aproximadamente un 90%. El ingreso de la restauración en febrero también se espera que disminuya en un 90% en comparación con el mismo período del año pasado, y se espera que mejore gradualmente después de marzo. El ingreso anual de la restauración se espera que sea de 3.97 billones de yuanes, lo que es aproximadamente un 15% menos que en 2019.
Las compañías de catering enfrentan presiones de costos continuas. Frente a la epidemia, por un lado, la mayoría de la industria de la restauración se vio obligada a cerrar, por otro lado, todavía necesitaba pagar alquileres, costos laborales y también enfrentaba la depreciación de activos fijos. Basándose en datos de investigación de mercado y datos financieros de compañías de catering cotizadas, la suma de los tres costos de materias primas, mano de obra y alquiler representa aproximadamente el 70% del costo total (Figura 5). En segundo lugar, el costo de compra de materiales para la prevención y control de la epidemia ha aumentado significativamente. Afectadas por la epidemia, la industria de la restauración comprará adicionalmente mascarillas, agua de desinfección, equipos de medición de temperatura, etc., para cumplir con los requisitos de seguridad de la prevención y control de la epidemia, lo que ha aumentado enormemente el gasto de las empresas de restauración.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
