Pertumbuhan cepat industri penyediaan makanan secara keseluruhan adalah tenaga penggerak penting bagi Tiongkok untuk memperluas permintaan domestik. Menurut data yang dirilis oleh Biro Statistik Nasional, penjualan ritel total barang konsumsi sosial di Tiongkok pada tahun 2019 adalah 41,2 triliun, di mana total industri penyediaan makanan adalah 4,67 triliun, yang menyumbang sekitar 11,3% dari total penjualan ritel sosial. Sejak tahun 2015, industri penyediaan makanan terus meningkatkan proporsinya sebesar __p1__.
I. Status dan pertumbuhan industri kuliner dalam ekonomi nasional Pertumbuhan cepat industri kuliner secara keseluruhan adalah kekuatan pendorong penting bagi China untuk memperluas permintaan domestik. Menurut data yang diterbitkan oleh Biro Statistik Nasional, total penjualan ritel konsumsi sosial di China pada tahun 2019 adalah 41,2 triliun yuan, di mana total industri kuliner adalah 4,67 triliun yuan, menempati sekitar 11,3% dari total penjualan ritel sosial. Sejak tahun 2015, industri kuliner terus meningkatkan pangsa pasarannya.
Dalam hal momentum pertumbuhan, penjualan eceran konsumsi sosial nasional pada tahun 2019 meningkat sebesar 8,0% secara tahunan, dan industri makanan meningkat sebesar 9,4% secara tahunan. Pada tahun 2019, konsumsi berkontribusi pada pertumbuhan GDP sebesar 57,8%, mendorong pertumbuhan GDP sekitar 3,5 persentase poin, dan menjadi mesin pertumbuhan ekonomi makro yang berkelanjutan selama enam tahun berturut-turut. Industri makanan menyumbang sekitar 11,3% dari total penjualan eceran sosial, mendorong pertumbuhan GDP sekitar 0,4 persentase poin
Industri kuliner China didominasi oleh usaha mikro dan menengah, dengan tingkat keterkaitan yang rendah dan konsentrasi pasar yang tidak signifikan. Menurut Asosiasi Kuliner China, pada tahun 2018 ada lebih dari 8 juta pedagang kuliner di seluruh negeri. Berdasarkan data survei dari Institut Meituan pada kuartal pertama tahun 2019, 86,5% pedagang kuliner adalah toko mandiri, 82,5% pedagang kuliner memiliki luas operasi kurang dari 100 meter persegi, dan 95,9% pedagang kuliner memiliki kurang dari 10 karyawan. Karena banyaknya restoran kecil dan menengah, konsentrasi pasar tidak tinggi dan efek skala dalam industri tidak signifikan. Seiring dengan meningkatnya persaingan di industri, usaha mikro dan menengah di sektor kuliner akan menghadapi masalah seperti kemampuan penarikan pelanggan yang tidak cukup di toko tunggal, penggunaan platform online yang rendah, dan secara umum dana operasional yang ketat.
Pengaruh Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Industri Makanan Pandemi COVID-19 telah menyebabkan kerugian bisnis sekitar 90% di industri makanan selama liburan musim semi dan bulan Februari. Kami memperkirakan bahwa jika tidak ada dampak dari pandemi COVID-19, pendapatan makanan tahunan Golden Week 2020 akan sekitar 124 miliar yuan, tetapi sebenarnya mungkin akan berkurang sekitar 90%. Pendapatan makanan bulan Februari juga diharapkan akan turun sebesar 90% dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu, dan diharapkan akan perlahan membaik setelah Maret. Pendapatan makanan tahunan diharapkan akan mencapai 3,97 triliun yuan, yang merupakan penurunan sekitar 15% dari tahun 2019.
Perusahaan pemasaran menghadapi tekanan biaya yang berkelanjutan. Di hadapan pandemi, di satu sisi, sebagian besar industri pemasaran terpaksa ditutup, di sisi lain, mereka masih perlu membayar sewa, biaya tenaga kerja, dan juga menghadapi depresiasi aset tetap. Berdasarkan data penelitian pasar dan data keuangan perusahaan pemasaran yang terdaftar, jumlah dari tiga biaya bahan baku, tenaga kerja, dan sewa mencakup sekitar 70% dari total biaya (Figur 5). Kedua, biaya pembelian bahan untuk pencegahan dan pengendalian pandemi telah meningkat secara signifikan. Terpengaruh oleh pandemi, industri pemasaran akan membeli tambahan masker, air disinfektan, peralatan pengukur suhu, dll., untuk memenuhi persyaratan keselamatan pencegahan dan pengendalian pandemi, yang telah sangat meningkatkan pengeluaran perusahaan pemasaran.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
