النمو السريع لصناعة الخدمات الغذائية بأكملها هو قوة دافعة مهمة تدفع الصين لتوسيع الطلب الداخلي. وفقًا للبيانات الصادرة عن الإدارة الوطنية للإحصاء، بلغ إجمالي مبيعات السلع الاستهلاكية الاجتماعية في الصين لعام 2019 ما يعادل 41.2 تريليون يوان، منها بلغت صناعة الخدمات الغذائية 4.67 تريليون يوان، وهو ما يمثل حوالي 11.3% من إجمالي مبيعات السلع الاستهلاكية الاجتماعية. منذ عام 2015، استمرت صناعة الخدمات الغذائية في زيادة نسبتها من الصفر.
أولاً، الحالة والنمو لصناعة الطعام في الاقتصاد الوطني. النمو السريع لصناعة الطعام بأكملها هو قوة دافعة مهمة تدفع الصين لتوسيع الطلب المحلي. وفقًا للبيانات الصادرة عن الإدارة الوطنية للإحصاء، بلغ إجمالي مبيعات السلع الاستهلاكية الاجتماعية في الصين لعام 2019 ما يعادل 41.2 تريليون يوان، منها صناعة الطعام بلغت 4.67 تريليون يوان، والتي تمثل حوالي 11.3% من إجمالي مبيعات السلع الاستهلاكية الاجتماعية. منذ عام 2015، استمرت صناعة الطعام في زيادة حصتها من الصفر.
فيما يتعلق بتسارع النمو، زادت مبيعات التجزئة للسلع الاستهلاكية الاجتماعية على مستوى البلاد بنسبة 8.0% سنوياً في عام 2019، وزاد قطاع الضيافة بنسبة 9.4% سنوياً. في عام 2019، ساهمت الإنفاق الاستهلاكي في نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بنسبة 57.8%， مما دفع الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بحوالي 3.5 نقطة مئوية، وأصبح المحرك الأول لنمو الاقتصاد الكلي لست سنوات على التوالي. يُقدر أن قطاع الضيافة يشكل حوالي 11.3% من مبيعات التجزئة الاجتماعية الكلية، ودفع نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بحوالي 0.4 نقطة مئوية.
中国餐饮行业以中小型企业为主，连锁化程度低，市场集中度不高。据中国烹饪协会统计，2018年全国有800多万家餐饮商户。根据美团研究院2019年第一季度的调查数据，86.5%的餐饮商户为个体户，82.5%的餐饮商户经营面积小于100平方米，95.9%的餐饮商户员工人数少于10人。由于中小型餐馆数量众多，市场集中度不高，行业内规模效应不明显。随着餐饮行业竞争加剧，中小型餐饮企业将暴露出单店客户获取能力不足、线上平台利用率低、运营资金紧张等问题。
Impact of New Crown Pneumonia on the Catering Industry The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused about 90% of business losses in the catering industry during the Spring Festival holiday and February. We estimate that without the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the catering revenue of the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020 will be about 124 billion yuan, but it may actually decrease by about 90%. The catering revenue in February is also expected to decrease by 90% compared to the same period last year, and it is expected to gradually improve after March. The annual catering revenue is expected to be 3.97 trillion yuan, which is about 15% lower than in 2019.
餐饮企业面临持续的成本压力。在疫情面前，一方面大部分餐饮企业被迫停业，另一方面仍需支付房租、人工成本，同时还要面对固定资产折旧的问题。根据市场调研数据和上市餐饮企业的财务数据，原材料、人工、租金三项成本合计约占总成本的70%（图5）。其次，防疫物资采购成本大幅上升。受疫情影响，餐饮行业将额外购买口罩、消毒液、测温仪等防疫物资，以满足防疫安全要求，这大大增加了餐饮企业的支出。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
