料理業界の急速な成長は、中国が国内需要を拡大する重要な推進力です。国家統計局が発表したデータによると、2019年の中国の社会消費品の総小売額は41.2兆元で、そのうち料理業界は4.67兆元を占め、社会消費品総小売額の約11.3％を占めています。2015年以降、料理業界の比率は継続して増加しています。
一、国家経済における飲食業の状況と成長 国内需要を拡大する重要な推進力として、飲食業全体の急速な成長があります。国家統計局が発表したデータによると、2019年の中国の社会消費品の総小売額は41.2兆元で、そのうち飲食業は4.67兆元を占め、社会消費品総小売額の約11.3％を占めています。2015年以降、飲食業はそのシェアを継続的に増加させています。
成長の勢いに関して言えば、2019年の全国の社会消費財の小売売上高は前年比で8.0%増加し、飲食業は前年比で9.4%増加しました。2019年における消費がGDP成長への貢献は57.8%で、GDPを約3.5パーセントポイント押し上げ、6年連続でマクロ経済成長の第一のエンジンとなりました。飲食業は社会消費零售総額の約11.3%を占め、GDP成長を約0.4パーセントポイント押し上げています。
中国の飲食業界は中小企業が主導しており、チェーン化の程度が低く市場集中度も低いです。中国烹飪協会によると、2018年には全国で800万以上の飲食店がありました。2019年第一四半期の美团研究院の調査データによると、飲食店の86.5％が個人店で、82.5％の飲食店が100平方メートル未満の営業面を持ち、95.9％の飲食店が10人未満の従業員を抱えています。そのため、小規模な飲食店の多さから、市場集中度は高くなく、業界内の規模の経済も明らかではありません。業界内の競争が高まるにつれて、飲食業界の中小企業は、単一店舗での顧客獲得能力が不足している、オンラインプラットフォームの利用率が低い、そして一般的に運営資金が逼迫しているなどの問題に直面することになります。
新型コロナウイルス肺炎が飲食業界に与えた影響 新型コロナウイルス肺炎の流行は、春節の連休中と2月に飲食業界の約90％の業務損失を引き起こしました。新型コロナウイルス肺炎の流行の影響なしであれば、2020年の春節の黄金週の飲食収入は約1240億元だったと推定されますが、実際には約90％減少する可能性があります。2月の飲食収入も昨年同じ期間と比べて約90％減少すると予想され、3月以降に徐々に改善される見込みです。年間の飲食収入は3.97兆元と予想され、これは2019年に比べて約15％低い水準です。
飲食会社は継続的なコスト圧力に直面しています。流行の前で、一方では、ほとんどの飲食業界が閉鎖を余儀なくされ、他方では、家賃、労働費用、固定資産の減価償却などの費用を支払う必要がありました。上場飲食会社の市場調査データと財務データに基づくと、原材料、労働、家賃の3つのコストの合計は、総コストの約70％を占めています（図5）。次に、流行防止対策のための材料購入コストが顕著に増加しています。流行の影響を受けて、飲食業界は追加のマスク、消毒水、温度測定装置などを購入し、流行防止対策の安全要求を満たす必要があり、これにより飲食企業の支出が大幅に増加しました。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
