飲食業の急速な成長は、中国が国内需要を拡大する重要な推進力です。国家統計局が発表したデータによると、2019年の中国の社会消費品の総小売額は41.2兆元で、そのうち飲食業は4.67兆元で、社会消費品総小売額の約11.3％を占めています。2015年以来、飲食業の比率は継続して増加しています。
I. 国民経済における飲食業の状況と成長 中国が国内需要を拡大する重要な推進力として、飲食業全体の急速な成長があります。国家統計局が発表したデータによると、2019年の中国の社会消費品の総小売額は41.2兆元で、そのうち飲食業は4.67兆元で、社会消費品総小売額の約11.3％を占めています。2015年以降、飲食業はそのシェアを継続的に増加させています。
成長の動きに関しては、2019年に全国の社会消費財の小売販売額は前年比で8.0％増加し、飲食業は前年比で9.4％増加しました。2019年、消費がGDP成長への貢献率は57.8％で、GDPを約3.5ポイント押し上げ、6年連続でマクロ経済成長の第一エンジンとなりました。飲食業は総社会小売販売額の約11.3％を占め、GDP成長を約0.4ポイント押し上げています。
中国の飲食業界は中小企業が主導しており、チェーン化の度合いが低く市場の集中度高くありません。中国烹飪協会によると、2018年には国内に800万以上の飲食店がありました。2019年第一四半期の美团研究院の調査データによると、飲食店の86.5％が個人店で、82.5％が営業面積が100平方メートル未満、そして95.9％が10人未満の従業員を抱えています。中小規模のレストランが多いため、市場の集中度は高くなく、業界内の規模経済は明らかではありません。業界内の競争が高まるにつれて、飲食業界の中小企業は、単一店舗での顧客獲得能力が不足している、オンラインプラットフォームの利用率が低い、一般的に運営資金が逼迫しているなどの問題に直面することになります。
新冠状病毒肺炎对餐饮行业的影响新冠状病毒肺炎疫情导致春节期间及2月份餐饮行业损失约90%,若没有新冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响,2020年春节黄金周餐饮收入约为1240亿元,但实际可能减少约90%,2月份餐饮收入也预计较去年同期下降约90%,3月后逐步恢复,全年餐饮收入预计为3.97万亿元,同比下降15%。
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
