De snelle groei van de cateringindustrie als geheel is een belangrijke dynamische kracht voor China om内需 te vergroten. Volgens gegevens releaseerd door het Nationaal Bureau van Statistiek was de totale omzet van sociale consumentenproducten in China in 2019 41,2 triljoen, waarvan de totale cateringindustrie 4,67 triljoen was, wat ongeveer 11,3% van de totale omzet van sociale consumentenproducten represents. Sinds 2015 is de proportion van de cateringindustrie continu toegewerkt aan een nul.
I. Statutie en groei van de cateringindustrie in de nationale ekonomie De snelle groei van de cateringindustrie als geheel is een belangrijke dynamische kracht voor China om内需 te vergroten. Volgens gegevens releaseerd door het Nationaal Bureau van Statistiek was de totale omzet van sociale consumentenproducten in China in 2019 41,2 triljoen, waarvan de cateringindustrie 4,67 triljoen was, wat ongeveer 11,3% van de totale omzet van sociale consumentenproducten represents. Sinds 2015 is de cateringindustrie continu aangetrokken aan een grotere en grotere share van nul.
In termen van groeiimpuls daalde de detailverkopen van sociale consumentenware in het hele land in 2019 met 8,0% ten opzichte van het jaar daarvoor, terwijl de restaurantindustrie met 9,4% daalde. In 2019 leverde consumentengebruik 57,8% bij aan de groei van het BBP, wat de economie met ongeveer 3,5 procentpunten dreef en het de eerste motor van de macro-economische groei maakte over zes opeenvolgende jaren. De restaurantindustrie vertegenwoordigt ongeveer 11,3% van de totale detailverkopen van sociale consumentenware en dreef de groei van het BBP met ongeveer 0,4 procentpunten.
De Chinese cateringindustrie is gedomineerd door kleine en middle规模的企业en, met een laag niveau van ketenings en marktcentrering. Volgens de China Culinary Association, waren er in 2018 meer dan 8 miljoen cateringmerken over het land. Volgens de enquêtegegevens van het Meituan Research Institute in de eerste quarter van 2019 was 86,5% van de cateringmerken individuele winkels, 82,5% van de cateringmerken een operatiegebied van minder dan 100 vierkante meter en 95,9% van de cateringmerken minder dan 10 medewerkers. Doordat er een large number van kleine en middle规模 restaurants zijn, is de marktcentrering niet hoog en de schaal effect in de industrie is niet duidelijk. Met het increasinge concurrentie in de industrie zullen kleine en middle规模 bedrijven in de cateringindustrie problemen zoals onvoldoende capaciteit om klanten te versterken in enkel winkels, lage omzicht van online platforms en in het algemene dichtbij de operatiekapitalen exposureen.
De impact van het New Crown Pneumonia op de cateringindustrie: De coronaperiode bracht ongeveer 90% van de businessverliezen in de cateringindustrie during de Spring Festival en februari. We schat dat de cateringinkomsten during de Spring Festival Golden Week van 2020, sans het effect van het New Crown Pneumonia, ongeveer 124 miljard yuan zouden zijn, maar ze zouden eigenlijk om ongeveer 90% afnemen. De cateringinkomsten in februari zijn ook verwacht te stijgen met 90% ten opzichte van hetzelfde periodo in het voorgaande jaar, en worden verwacht te verbeteren na maart. De jaarsomzet van de cateringinkomsten is verwacht op 3,97 triljoen yuan, wat ongeveer 15% minder is dan in 2019.
餐饮企业面临持续的成本压力。在疫情面前，一方面大部分餐饮企业被迫停业，另一方面仍需支付房租、人工成本，同时还要面对固定资产折旧等支出。根据市场调研数据和上市餐饮企业的财务数据，原材料、人工、租金三项成本合计约占总成本的70%（图5）。其次，防疫物资采购成本显著增加。受疫情影响，餐饮行业将额外购买口罩、消毒水、测温设备等防疫物资，以满足防疫安全要求，这大大增加了餐饮企业的支出。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
