Rozwój branży kuchni w ciągu kilku lat jest ważną siłą proporcji, która spowodowała Chiny扩张内需. W zależności od danych opublikowanych przez Narodowe Biuro Statystyki, ogólne零售销售额 obrotu towarów społecznych w Chiny w 2019 roku wyniosły 41,2 trilionów, z czego branża kuchni stanowiła 4,67 trilionów, co stanowiło około 11,3% ogólnych零售销售额 społecznych. Od 2015 roku branża kuchni kontynuowała zwiększanie swojej procentury zero.
I. Status i rozwój branży kuchni w gospodarce narodowej. Wysoki tempo rozwijania branży kuchni jako podstawowa siła proporcji do wywozu domowych potrzeb Chiny jest. W zależności od danych opublikowanych przez Narodowe Biuro Statystyki, w 2019 ogólne零售销售额 społecznych konsumenckich w Chiny wyniosły 41,2 triliona, z czego branża kuchni stanowiła 4,67 triliona, co stanowiło około 11,3% ogólnych零售销售额 społecznych. Od 2015 branża kuchni kontynuowała zwiększać swą долю w zero.
W dziedzinie momentumów wzrostu, ogólnoznacznego rynku detalicznych produktów konsumpcyjnych w 2019 roku rosnący się w porównaniu do roku poprzednim były 8,0%, a w sektorze rynku kawowych - 9,4%. W 2019 roku konsumpcja wzięła udziały w wzrostie GDP na poziomie 57,8%, dostosowując się do wzrostu GDP o około 3,5 procentowych punktów, i stała się piątym silnikiem wzrostu makroekonomii na przestrzeniach sześci lat pod rówiejszymi ciągami. Sektor rynku kawowych stanowi około 11,3% ogólnoznacznego rynku detalicznych produktów konsumpcyjnych, dostosowując się do wzrostu GDP o około 0,4 procentowych punktów.
Chinyjska branża kuchni jest dominowana przez małe i średnie firmy, z niskim stopniem łańcucha i rynkowej koncentracji. W 2018 r. w kraju istniało ponad 8 milionów rynkowych handlarzy kuchennych.Według danych analitycznych Instytutu Badań Meituan z第一季度 2019 r., 86,5% rynkowych handlarzy kuchennych stanowiły indywidualne sklepy, 82,5% handlarzy kuchennych miały powierzchnię sprzedaży poniżej 100 metrów kwadratowych, a 95,9% handlarzy kuchennych miało mniej niż 10 çalışowników. W rezultacie dużej liczby małych i średnich restauracji rynkowa koncentracja nie jest alta i efekt skali w branży nie jest znaczący. Z powodu increasing competition w branży, małe i średnie firmy w branży kuchni będą eksponować problemy takie jak niskie zdolności do pozyskania klientów w jednych sklepach, niski wykorzystanie online platform i w ogóle ciasne operacyjne fundusze.
New Crown Pneumonia Impact on the Catering Industry Pandemic of New Crown Pneumonia caused about 90% of business losses in the catering industry during the Spring Festival holiday and February. We estimate that without the impact of the New Crown Pneumonia epidemic, the catering revenue of the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020 would have been about 124 billion yuan, but it might actually have decreased by about 90%. The catering revenue in February is also expected to decrease by 90% compared to the same period last year, and it is anticipated to gradually improve after March. The annual catering revenue is expected to reach 3.97 trillion yuan, which is approximately 15% lower than in 2019.
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
