O rápido crescimento da indústria de catering em geral é uma importante força motriz para a expansão da demanda interna na China. De acordo com dados divulgados pelo Bureau Nacional de Estatísticas, as vendas totais de bens de consumo social em China em 2019 foram de 41,2 trilhões, dos quais o setor de catering representou 4,67 trilhões, representando cerca de 11,3% do total das vendas totais de bens de consumo social. Desde 2015, o setor de catering continuou a aumentar sua proporção de zero.
I. 餐饮产业在国民经济中的地位和发展趋势 （一）餐饮产业整体快速发展是扩大内需的重要动力 根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年我国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮产业零售额为4.67万亿元，占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮行业持续增加其零
2019年社会消费品零售总额增长8.0%，餐饮收入增长9.4%，消费对GDP增长贡献率57.8%，拉动GDP增长约3.5个百分点，连续6年成为经济增长的“三驾马车”之首，餐饮业占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%，拉动GDP增长约0.4个百分点。
A indústria de restaurantes na China é dominada por pequenas e médias empresas, com um baixo grau de cadeia e concentração de mercado. De acordo com a Associação Culinária da China, havia mais de 8 milhões de comerciantes de restaurantes em todo o país em 2018. De acordo com os dados da pesquisa do Instituto de Pesquisa Meituan no primeiro trimestre de 2019, 86,5% dos comerciantes de restaurantes eram lojas individuais, 82,5% tinham uma área de operação inferior a 100 metros quadrados, e 95,9% tinham menos de 10 funcionários. Devido ao grande número de pequenas e médias restaurantes, a concentração de mercado não é alta e o efeito de escala na indústria não é evidente. Com o aumento da competição na indústria, as pequenas e médias empresas do setor de restaurantes enfrentarão problemas como capacidades insuficientes de aquisição de clientes em lojas individuais, baixa utilização de plataformas online e, em geral, fundos operacionais apertados.
O Impacto da Pneumonia COVID-19 na Indústria de Fornecimento A epidemia de pneumonia COVID-19 causou cerca de 90% das perdas de negócios na indústria de fornecimento durante as férias de Ano Novo Lunar e fevereiro. Estimamos que, sem o impacto da epidemia de pneumonia COVID-19, a receita de fornecimento durante a semana do Ano Novo Lunar de 2020 seria de cerca de 124 bilhões de yuan, mas poderia realmente diminuir cerca de 90%. A receita de fornecimento em fevereiro também é esperada para diminuir 90% em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado e espera-se que melhorie gradualmente após março. A receita anual de fornecimento é esperada para ser de 3,97 trilhões de yuan, o que é cerca de 15% menor do que em 2019.
As empresas de catering enfrentam pressões de custo contínuas. Frente à pandemia, de um lado, a maioria da indústria de catering foi forçada a fechar, por outro lado, ainda precisava pagar aluguel, custos de mão de obra, e também enfrentava a depreciação de ativos fixos. Com base em dados de pesquisa de mercado e dados financeiros de empresas de catering listadas, a soma das três despesas de matérias-primas, mão de obra e aluguel corresponde a cerca de 70% do custo total (Figura 5). Em segundo lugar, o custo de compra de materiais para prevenção e controle de epidemias aumentou significativamente. Afectado pela pandemia, a indústria de catering comprará máscaras adicionais, água desinfetante, equipamentos de medição de temperatura, etc., para atender às exigências de segurança da prevenção e controle de epidemias, o que aumentou muito os gastos das empresas de catering.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
