餐饮行业的快速增长是中国扩大内需的重要驱动力。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮业总额为4.67万亿元，占总社会消费品零售总额的大约11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮业占零的比例持续上升。
I. 美食行业在国家经济中的地位和增长。整体美食行业的快速增长是中国扩大内需的重要驱动力。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮业总销售额为4.67万亿元，占总社会消费品零售总额的约11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮业的份额持续增加。
In terms of growth momentum, the retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide in 2019 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the catering industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year. In 2019, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth was 57.8%, driving GDP by about 3.5 percentage points, and becoming the first engine of macroeconomic growth for six consecutive years. The catering industry accounts for about 11.3% of total social retail sales, driving GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points
中國的餐饮業由中小企業主導，連鎖程度和市場集中度均低。中國烹飪協會的數據顯示，2018年全國有超過800萬家餐飲商家。根據2019年第一季度的美团研究院調查數據，86.5%的餐飲商家為個體店，82.5%的餐飲商家營業面積少於100平方米，95.9%的餐飲商家員工人數少於10人。由於中小餐馆数量眾多，市場集中度不高，行業規模效應不明顯。隨著行業競爭日趨激烈，餐飲業的中小企業將面臨諸如店面單一店客户獲取能力不足、線上平台利用率低以及運營資金普遍緊缺等問題。
Impact of New Crown Pneumonia on the Catering Industry The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused about 90% of business losses in the catering industry during the Spring Festival holiday and February. We estimate that without the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the catering revenue of the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020 will be about 124 billion yuan, but it may actually decrease by about 90%. The catering revenue in February is also expected to decrease by 90% compared to the same period last year, and it is expected to gradually improve after March. The annual catering revenue is expected to be 3.97 trillion yuan, which is about 15% lower than in 2019.
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
