餐饮行业整体的快速增长是推动中国扩大内需的重要动力。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年中国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮行业占比4.67万亿元，约占社会消费品零售总额的11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮行业在总消费中的比重一直在增加。
一、餐饮業在國民經濟中的地位與成長 視頻會議中心餐飲業的快速成長，是推動中國擴大內需的重要力量。根據國家統計局发布的數據，2019年中國社會消費品零售總額達到41.2兆元，其中餐飲業總額為4.67兆元，約佔社會消費品零售總額的11.3%。自2015年起，餐飲業的占比持續上升
从增长动力来看，2019年全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长8.0%，餐饮收入同比增长9.4%，2019年消费对GDP增长的贡献率为57.8%，拉动GDP增长约3.5个百分点，成为连续6年成为经济增长的第一引擎，餐饮业占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%，拉动GDP增长约0.4个百分点。
中國的飲食業由中小企業主導，連鎖度和市場集中度均偏低。根據中國烹飪協會的數據，2018年全國有超過800萬飲食商家。根據2019年第一季度的美團研究院調查數據，86.5%的飲食商家為個人店，82.5%的飲食商家營業面積少於100平方米，且95.9%的飲食商家員工人數少於10人。由於中小餐廳的数量眾多，市場集中度並不高，行業的規模效應也不明顯。隨著行業競爭日趨激烈，飲食業的中小企業將面臨诸如店面單一店客户獲取能力不足、線上平台利用率低以及一般而言運營資金緊缺等問題。
新冠肺炎疫情對餐飲業界的影響 新冠肺炎疫情在春節假期和二月造成了約90%的商業損失。我們估計，如果不會計新冠肺炎疫情的影响，2020年春節黃金周的餐飲收入將約為1240億元，但實際上可能減少約90%。二月的餐飲收入也預計比去年同期的同期減少90%，並且预计在三月份後會逐步改善。年度餐飲收入預計為3.97兆元，這比2019年少了約15%。
Catering companies are facing ongoing cost pressures. In the face of the epidemic, on the one hand, most of the catering industry was forced to close down, on the other hand, it still needed to pay rent, labor costs, and also faced depreciation of fixed assets. Based on market research data and financial data of listed catering companies, the sum of the three costs of raw materials, labor and rent accounts for about 70% of the total cost (Figure 5). Secondly, the cost of purchasing materials for epidemic prevention and control has increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the catering industry will purchase additional masks, disinfection water, temperature measurement equipment, etc. to meet the safety requirements of epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly increased the expenditure of catering enterprises.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
